Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Dec 29 2024 20:04:09 ACUS01 KWNS 292003 SWODY1 SPC AC 292002 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND IN PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS/VIRGINIA... ....SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage remains possible in parts of Carolinas into southern Virginia into the early evening. A brief tornado and isolated wind damage is also possible in the upper Ohio Valley vicinity. ....20Z... With continued downward trend in intensity of convection in the Carolinas. Severe probabilities have been reduced. Recent model trends have shown less potential for additional development in central North Carolina/Virginia; however, given the large-scale ascent, have opted to maintain low severe wind probabilities. More recent model trends would suggest develop, if it occurs, may in eastern North Carolina/Virginia. A shortwave trough now in Missouri may spur convective development late this afternoon in parts of western/central Kentucky into northern Middle Tennessee. Very cold temperature aloft and lingering upper 40s F dewpoints may allow for a stronger storm or two. Small hail and strong wind gusts are possible. The threat appears too conditional for severe probabilities, however. The forecast in the upper Ohio Valley remains unchanged. Isolated wind damage and a brief tornado remain possible with convection along the leading edge of the upper-level trough. ...Wendt.. 12/29/2024 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024/ ....Carolinas... A large and negatively-tilted shortwave trough is rotating northeastward across the TN/OH Valleys today, with intense low and mid-level wind fields overspreading much of the eastern US. A pre-frontal squall line has advanced eastward into central NC and eastern SC, well ahead of the primary surface cold front and considerably faster than model guidance had predicted. This line is moving through weak instability, with very limited lightning being observed. Nevertheless, low-level winds and convergence along the line are quite strong, leading to gusty and occasional damaging winds. This trend will continue through the afternoon across the eastern Carolinas. ....NC/VA This Evening... Behind this line, widespread clouds and dewpoints in the 50s will result in continued weak thermodynamic profiles for deep convection. However, given the large-scale ascent and strong winds aloft, there remains some chance of re-development of showers and occasional thunderstorms from central NC into VA this evening. If this scenario unfolds, isolated damaging wind gusts could occur. ....OH/PA... A deep surface low currently over southern IN will track into northwest OH today, with a occluded front extending eastward from the low across OH. Widespread cloud cover will limit CAPE to 100-200 J/kg this afternoon ahead of the front. However, very strong winds aloft and large scale forcing for ascent is expected to result in scattered showers and thunderstorms. This fast-moving convection may result in locally damaging wind gusts or a brief tornado as it affects much of OH and western PA through early evening. ....FL Keys... An east-west band of thunderstorms is sagging southward across the FL Keys today. Several areas of rotation have been noted all morning along the line, which may pose a risk of gusty winds or waterspout/brief tornado activity. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .