Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Dec 29 2024 02:33:43 AWUS01 KWNH 290233 FFGMPD FLZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-290830- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1203 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 931 PM EST Sat Dec 28 2024 Areas affected...Central Gulf Coast...Mid-South Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 290230Z - 290830Z SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms associated with an eastward advancing QLCS will continue to foster some potential for areas of flash flooding going into the overnight hours. DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery in conjunction with dual-pol radar shows a well-defined QLCS continuing to advance off to the east across large areas of the Mid-South with an extension essentially from northern MS south-southwestward down into southeast LA. This continues to be associated with a strong mid-level trough ejecting out of the Lower MS Valley and lifting toward the Mid-South as it gradually takes on a neutral to slightly negative tilt. Enhanced deep layer ascent and shear continues to interact with a strong southerly low-level jet of 40 to 60+ kts and this will continue to drive a well-organized axis of convection downstream across much of the South going through the overnight hours. MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2500 J/kg are noted across southeast LA into far southern MS, and this coupled with higher PWs reaching over 1.5 inches should tend to drive heavier rainfall rates across this area with the more organized convective cells that will be crossing this region over the next several hours. The convection in general across the central Gulf Coast region including southeast LA, southern MS and southern AL may tend to take on more of a southwest to northeast orientation going through 06Z which will facilitate some areas of cell-training. Farther to the north, the instability does drop off rather considerably, and especially for areas up across northern MS, northern AL and through middle TN, but with such strong dynamical forcing crossing this region, there should still be at least some broken QLCS activity that fosters heavy rainfall. This portion of the overall convective axis is certainly more progressive though which will tend to keep the overall rainfall potential a bit more limited. Rainfall rates with the stronger and more organized storms, and especially the supercell activity closer to the central Gulf Coast, will still be capable of reaching 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour. For areas that do see cell-training, some additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches will be possible overnight. This may drive at least some pockets of flash flooding and especially around the more sensitive urban corridors. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!66qJBdcM3qSWnWivv0F8k5hcl4Ewq1Kk7lTRWu4iMEUXLiuVSl6OCxLGAI7I6L6dgqMn= -S6pPSdzuszfomkmTBntI2U$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...LCH...LIX...MEG...MOB...OHX... ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 35668714 35168590 33308571 31228642 30218757=20 29908868 29528996 29249100 29469199 30089196=20 30999050 32408972 34238929 35248854=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .