Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Dec 29 2024 01:00:08 ACUS01 KWNS 290100 SWODY1 SPC AC 290058 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ....THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN ALABAMA... ....SUMMARY... An outbreak of tornadoes and severe wind gusts will continue this evening into tonight from the lower Mississippi Valley into the central Gulf Coast states. Long-track tornadoes of greater than EF2 intensity will be likely in some areas. Wind gusts greater than 70 mph will also be possible. ....Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast States... The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level low over northeast Texas, with an associated trough in east Texas. Ahead of the trough, a 65 to 80 knot mid-level jet is moving through southeast Texas and central Louisiana. At the surface, a cold front is located from western Mississippi southwestward into south-central Louisiana, along which a severe linear MCS is ongoing. The MCS is near an axis of moderate instability, where surface dewpoints are in the mid to upper 60s F. Along and near the moist axis, the RAP has MLCAPE ranging from 1000 J/kg in west-central Mississippi to around 3000 J/kg along the Louisiana Gulf Coast. Near the axis of instability, a 40 to 60 knot low-level jet is analyzed ahead of the linear MCS. Isolated supercells are ongoing near the axis of this low-level jet in south-central Mississippi. RAP forecast soundings early this evening at Jackson, Mississippi have impressive wind profiles, with 0-6 km shear of 50 to 55 knots, and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 400 m2/s2. The shear environment will be favorable for tornadic supercells. Long-track tornadoes of EF3+ in intensity will be possible this evening with supercells that remain discrete out ahead of the linear MCS. Strong tornadoes will also be possible with embedded supercells within the line. The linear MCS, accompanied by severe wind gusts and tornadoes, will continue to move quickly eastward across Mississippi this evening. By late evening, the line is expected to be located from far western Alabama into southeast Mississippi and southeast Louisiana. The potential for tornadoes and severe wind gusts will likely continue along the more intense parts of the line through much of the night. By daybreak, the line should be located from western Georgia southward into the Florida Peninsula, where isolated severe wind gusts will be possible. ...Broyles.. 12/29/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .