Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Dec 28 2024 17:36:05 ACUS02 KWNS 281735 SWODY2 SPC AC 281734 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND CAROLINAS... ....SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and upper Ohio Valley on Sunday. ....Southeast and Mid-Atlantic Vicinity... A negative-tilt mid/upper trough will progress quickly northeast from the MS/TN Valley to the lower Great Lakes/Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. A strong 70-90 kt midlevel jet over the TN/OH Valley early in the period will weaken somewhat as the system lifts northeast. Nevertheless, abundant vertical shear will overspread the region through the daytime and evening hours. A mixed convective mode is expected, especially with southward extent into SC/GA and northern FL with a QLCS and semi-discrete cells possible. With northward extent and where stronger large-scale ascent will be focused, a narrow band of convection will move across portions of WV/VA/NC. Stronger instability will be focused to the south, from SC into north FL, where 60s F dewpoints will allow for 500-1200 J/kg MLCAPE. Weaker boundary-layer moisture and cooler temperatures with northward extent will limit surface-based instability. Nevertheless, fast moving linear convection will still pose a risk for sporadic strong to severe wind gusts from NC into VA/WV. Where stronger instability and potential for semi-discrete cells are forecast from SC southward, a greater risk for damaging gusts, a few tornadoes and marginally severe hail will exist. ....Ohio Valley... A synoptically favorable setup for cold-core convection will overspread the region during the afternoon as a surface low lifts northeast near the IN/OH border. A narrow corridor of mid-50s F dewpoints will nose into central OH ahead of the low and attendant surface front. Modest steepening of midlevel lapse rates associated with the ejecting upper trough will support minor destabilization (generally less than 250 J/kg MUCAPE) amid modest vertical shear. Thermodynamic profiles indicate low-topped convection is possible, though CAMs guidance is very anemic in the depiction of this convection given poor thermodynamics. Nevertheless, at least a conditional risk, mainly for strong gusts, will exist during the early to mid afternoon. ...Leitman.. 12/28/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .