Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Dec 28 2024 07:04:07 ACUS02 KWNS 280703 SWODY2 SPC AC 280702 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ....SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and upper Ohio Valley on Sunday. ....Synopsis... A pronounced upper-level trough will intensify as it pivots northeast across much of the eastern U.S. Sunday. An associated surface low will deepen as it moves northeast from western portions of KY/TN into the eastern Great Lakes region. A trailing cold front will move east across the southeast/mid-Atlantic states, approaching the coast during the afternoon/evening. ....Southeast/mid-Atlantic States... One or more lines of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at 12z Sunday near and in advance of the cold front, aided by large-scale ascent with the upper trough and low-level warm/moist advection. These early-day storms will have severe potential, primarily in the form of strong/damaging gusts. Low-level moisture, with surface dew points in the 60s, will advect north throughout the day, reaching as far north as the VA/NC border by afternoon. Extensive cloud cover will tend to temper heating/destabilization, with generally weak instability in advance of the cold front (pockets of MLCAPE between 500 and 1000 J/kg, locally higher over the northern FL peninsula). Thunderstorms should re-intensify or re-develop during the afternoon as the stronger large-scale ascent overspreads the moistening warm sector, with a linear structure likely the dominant storm mode along the cold front as it moves towards the coast by late afternoon/evening. Very strong low- and mid-level wind fields will aid in downward momentum transport resulting in damaging winds as the primary severe risk. Transient QLCS circulations will also pose a risk for a tornado or two, especially from portions of eastern GA across the central Carolinas, where the best overlap of instability and favorable low-level shear will exist. Isolated instances of hail will also be possible with the most intense updrafts. ....Upper Ohio Valley... Beneath the primary mid-level cold core near the center of the surface low, differential temperature advection above low-mid 50s F dewpoints should steepen low/mid-level lapse rates sufficiently for modest diurnal destabilization resulting in a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE. This may be sufficient for a risk of a few damaging wind gusts or small hail with low-topped strong storms, given 45-60 kt of low-level flow beneath the upper trough. ...Bunting.. 12/28/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .