Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2292
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Dec 27 2024 21:17:25

ACUS11 KWNS 272117
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272116=20
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-272245-

Mesoscale Discussion 2292
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0316 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024

Areas affected...portions of southeast Mississippi into southwestern
Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 272116Z - 272245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated tornado threat should persist for at least a
few more hours.

DISCUSSION...Transient supercell structures have supported sparse
tornado development this afternoon despite gradually weakening
low-level shear profiles. Given modest surface heating, surface
temperatures have warmed to near 70 F, contributing up to 1000 J/kg
MLCAPE (per 21Z mesoanalysis) where surface dewpoints have climbed
to the upper 60s F. The best low-level moisture and dewpoints reside
roughly from Jones County, MS to the Mobile Bay area, and this is
where the most robust thunderstorm development (with strong
low-level rotation and/or tornadoes) has occurred. Given the limited
overlap of the best low-level shear and moisture, a localized
tornado threat may persist for only a few more hours.

...Squitieri/Hart.. 12/27/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9Qos5CnNj0ARD7C6P-beveA7PvT8v4vkZ5_tdx0KAbtBiIRTPB3tB4rcvYUvhjGF7RFWoIV-v=
hLvU8w10pFWs_IAPt0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   30258926 30588961 31088964 32348895 32798852 32848815
            32508796 31958789 31398759 30958716 30608708 30278734
            30098841 30258926=20


=3D =3D =3D
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