Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Dec 27 2024 19:49:57

ACUS01 KWNS 271949
SWODY1
SPC AC 271948

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024

Valid 272000Z - 281200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST LA/MS INTO SOUTHWEST AL AND THE WESTERN
FL PANHANDLE...

....SUMMARY...
A few strong to locally severe thunderstorms could occur today
across parts of the central Gulf Coast States.

....20Z Update...
Only minor adjustments to the Marginal and general thunderstorm
areas based on current observation/activity in parts of southern
Louisiana. Additional convection is developing in the wake of this
morning's activity in eastern/southern Mississippi. With the modest
destabilization that has occurred this afternoon, these storms will
be capable of a marginal wind/tornado threat. Further details
available in the previous discussion below.

...Wendt.. 12/27/2024

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024/

....Central Gulf Coast Region...
A compact negative-tilted shortwave trough that has provided
occasionally strong thunderstorms to parts of southern MS/southeast
LA is tracking away from the Gulf Coast region.  Low-level winds are
slowly veering/decreasing with time, suggesting the threat of
supercell structures and associated severe threat is marginal
through mid-afternoon.

Another strong upper trough that is now over north TX will graze the
same area late this afternoon, possibly resulting in a
re-invigoration of convection across southeast MS and southwest AL.
The air mass has been slow to recover, with mid 60s dewpoints
restricted to areas just a few rows of counties inland.  Widespread
clouds will also limit destabilization.  Locally gusty winds or a
brief tornado will remain possible with this renewed early evening
activity, but the overall threat appears marginal.

$$

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