Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Dec 27 2024 19:21:59 ACUS03 KWNS 271920 SWODY3 SPC AC 271919 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE CAROLINAS... ....SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast States on Sunday. ....Synopsis... An upper trough over the MS Valley is forecast to continue to amplify as moves into the southeastern/eastern US Sunday. Strong mid-level flow ahead of the trough and a deepening surface low will overspread a moistening air mass from the Carolinas to the Atlantic Coast. Weak to moderate buoyancy and strong deep and low-level shear will support a risk for strong to severe storms capable of damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes. ....Southeast... One or more broken bands of storms are expected to be ongoing early Sunday morning across parts of AL or western GA ahead of the cold front trailing the surface low through the OH Valley. As the upper trough progresses eastward, gradual reintensification of this convection is expected through the early afternoon as moderate height falls overspread lower to middle 60s F surface dewpoints into parts of the Southeast and the Carolinas. Additional storms are possible ahead of the primary band with some diurnal heating. However, lingering cloud cover and the rapid low-level temperature advection ahead of the low is expected to keep cloud cover relatively dense, limiting buoyancy (max of 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE). This is especially so with northward extent where quite limited instability is likely into southern VA and the Mid Atlantic at the nose of the low-level moisture plume. Still, relatively moist surface conditions will allow for robust convection across the risk area with a mix of line segments and a few semi-discrete supercells given favorable deep-layer shear of 40-60 kt. The strong mid and low-level flow will support a risk of damaging gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes with the stronger storms into the evening, before weakening buoyancy reduces the overall severe risk. .... Upper OH Valley... Beneath the primary mid-level cold core near the center of the surface low, differential temperature advection atop low 50s F dewpoints may steepen low/mid-level lapse rates sufficiently for marginal diurnal destabilization of a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE. This may support a risk for a few damaging wind gusts or small hail with low-topped strong storms given 45-60 kt of low-level flow beneath the upper trough. ...Lyons.. 12/27/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .