Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Dec 27 2024 05:51:47

ACUS01 KWNS 270551
SWODY1
SPC AC 270549

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES....

....SUMMARY...
A few strong to locally severe thunderstorms could occur today
across parts of the central Gulf Coast states.

....Central Gulf Coast States...
A lead shortwave trough will de-amplify today, moving northeastward
into the Ohio Valley. In its wake, a large-scale upper-level trough
will move from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi
Valley. At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward across
the lower Mississippi Valley, with a moist airmass located in the
central Gulf Coast states. At daybreak, a broken line of
thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near the front. This line is
forecast to gradually diminish this morning, as the shortwave trough
moves away from the region. Increasing instability this afternoon
should result in convective redevelopment along and near an axis of
moisture and instability from south-central Mississippi
east-northeastward into Alabama. The models suggest that the
instability in the central Gulf Coast states will be displaced to
the southwest of the stronger deep-layer shear, and that large-scale
ascent will be weak. This will likely keep any severe threat
isolated and marginal this afternoon. The strongest cells may have
potential to produce isolated severe gusts, and perhaps a brief
tornado.

...Broyles/Thornton.. 12/27/2024

$$

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