Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Dec 26 2024 07:00:41 ACUS02 KWNS 260700 SWODY2 SPC AC 260659 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ....SUMMARY... A few strong to locally severe thunderstorms could occur across the Lower Mississippi Valley Friday. ....Lower Mississippi Valley... Cyclonically curved westerlies will feature multiple mid-level disturbances influencing the region on Friday, including one shortwave trough that will quickly spread northeastward away from the region early Friday, with a more glancing influence by a secondary impulse later in the day. Linearly organized thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Friday morning, potentially from western/Middle Tennessee south-southwestward across eastern/southern Mississippi into Louisiana. Some strong to locally severe storms could occur/linger early in the day across parts of Mississippi, where a modest reservoir of instability may reside coincident with a residually strong deep-layer/low-level wind field, even while the main upper system quickly shifts away from the region. Some air mass recovery is possible during the day on the southern periphery of the early day storms across Mississippi and possibly into nearby Louisiana/Alabama. Overall instability should remain relatively weak, but sufficient moisture/buoyancy in the presence of 35-40 kt of effective shear could potentially allow for a few weak/transient supercells in the afternoon. A couple of locally severe storms could occur. Thunderstorms may otherwise increase in a northward-expanding trend late Friday night, potentially near the upper Texas coast and more so across parts of Louisiana and Mississippi. This will be as the low-level baroclinic zone begins to return northward and isentropic ascent increases. Some hail cannot be entirely ruled out in the presence of 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE and around 35-40 kt of shear within the cloud-bearing layer. ...Guyer.. 12/26/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .