Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Dec 25 2024 19:51:35

ACUS01 KWNS 251950
SWODY1
SPC AC 251948

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024

Valid 252000Z - 261200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today (Christmas).

....20Z Update...
Aside from some minor changes to the general thunderstorm forecast,
the outlook remains on track. A few stronger storm cores have been
noted in parts of Plaquemines Parish in far southeast Louisiana.
Very weak low-level rotation has occurred, primarily with storms
offshore. Weak buoyancy inland should keep any substantive severe
threat minimal.

Towards Thursday morning, a few storms may impact southwest Oregon
into northwest California. While hodographs ahead of the front would
support some storm rotation, surface-based buoyancy will primarily
be coincident with westerly low-level winds and much less favorable
hodographs. As such, severe storms continue to appear unlikely.

...Wendt.. 12/25/2024

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024/

....Southeast LA...
The large cluster of thunderstorms that affected southeast TX
overnight has moved offshore into the Gulf.  Other, likely elevated
thunderstorms have developed across southeast LA in advance of the
larger MCS.  These storms are north of the primary surface warm
front and in a region of limited low-level moisture/instability.  A
strong storm or two is possible across southeast LA this afternoon
and evening.  However, forecast soundings indicate veering low-level
wind profiles but rather weak flow and limited shear magnitudes,
precluding an organized severe threat.

$$

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