Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Dec 25 2024 17:31:38 ACUS02 KWNS 251731 SWODY2 SPC AC 251730 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Thursday across central/east Texas into western Louisiana and possibly southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex region. ....Synopsis... A mid-level low, initially over the Texas Panhandle at the beginning of the period Thursday will slowly move east and become negatively tilted and more compact as it translates across the southern Plains and ends the period in the mid-Mississippi Valley. As this occurs, a surface low will strengthen across central Texas and move into Arkansas Thursday evening. As this cyclone intensifies, strengthening surface winds will draw mid 60s dewpoints northward across much of East Texas and Louisiana with low 60s dewpoints possibly into southern Arkansas. ....Central/East Texas to the Arklatex and much of Louisiana... Some showers and a few thunderstorms are possible within the warm air advection regime across East Texas and southern Louisiana Thursday morning. Relatively weak lapse rates and weak forcing should keep the severe weather threat somewhat subdued during the morning to early afternoon, but near-surface based parcels and clockwise curving hodographs could support some mini-supercells and an isolated tornado threat. Expect a gradual increase in convective coverage through the day as the low-level jet intensifies ahead of the approaching wave and greater surface based instability develops across southeast Texas. Moderate instability and strong shear will support the potential for supercells with an initial threat for large hail and a greater tornado threat during the late afternoon and evening as the low-level jet intensifies. The HRRR suggests much greater instability and low-level shear across the warm sector Thursday afternoon than the rest of the hi-res guidance. If this solution were to materialize, greater tornado probabilities would likely be warranted, but this appears to be more of an outlier solution at this time. Nonetheless, a favorable supercell environment will exist across east Texas with an increasing tornado threat later in the afternoon and evening. Any mature supercells which can develop during the afternoon amid greater instability and remain discrete into the evening as the low-level jet intensifies could pose a threat for a strong (EF2+ tornado). In addition, expect a squall line to intensify during the evening. Instability will be relatively weak farther north, but could remain sufficient to convectively transport the 50 to 70 knot low-level jet to the surface across parts of southeast Oklahoma, southern Arkansas, and northern Louisiana Thursday evening and into the overnight hours. ....Pacific Northwest to California Coast... A cold front will move onto the California Coast at the beginning of the period with the potential for some gusty winds. Hodographs will be cyclonically curved ahead of the front, but it appears surface-based instability will be limited until colder air aloft arrives in the wake of the front. Therefore, some thunderstorm threat will exist through the day, but no severe weather is anticipated. ...Bentley.. 12/25/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .