Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Dec 25 2024 12:46:06

ACUS01 KWNS 251246
SWODY1
SPC AC 251244

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0644 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024

Valid 251300Z - 261200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today (Christmas).

....Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level disturbance over
the northwest Gulf Coast while another upstream and more potent
shortwave trough is located over UT/AZ.  The Gulf Coast disturbance
will weaken during the day as it moves east across the central Gulf
Coast.  Limited low-level mass response is forecast across southern
LA due in part to relatively cool/stable conditions via a
slow-to-erode surface ridge initially located over the central Gulf
Coast.  The maritime boundary over the northern Gulf is only
expected to reach the near-shore waters.  The airmass north of the
maritime front was sampled by the 12 UTC Lake Charles observed
sounding (near zero surface-based CAPE), and this expected lack of
appreciable airmass modification/destabilization during the day will
limit storm intensity.  The ongoing convective band over southwest
LA this morning will likely continue east through midday and reach
south-central LA, with a few elevated thunderstorms moving inland
from the Gulf.  Later this afternoon, a few strong storms may
approach the southeastern-most portions of LA, but the primary
concern should remain offshore.

...Smith/Grams.. 12/25/2024

$$

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