Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Dec 25 2024 07:05:02 ACUS02 KWNS 250704 SWODY2 SPC AC 250703 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Thursday across central/east Texas into western Louisiana and possibly southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex region. ....Central/East Texas to ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley... A low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave trough is expected to transition east-northeastward across Texas toward the Ozarks Thursday and Thursday night. In response, modest surface cyclogenesis should occur across west into North Texas toward the ArkLaTex/Ozarks, with an increasingly moist airmass becoming established across much of east/southeast Texas into Louisiana and the ArkLaTex. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing and increasing Thursday morning across north Texas into southern Oklahoma. These storms and the timing/location thereof will be an influential factor for the main corridor of severe-weather potential into the afternoon, limiting the northern extent of destabilization where clouds/convection persist. Thinking remains that a surface-based severe risk should increase by Thursday midday/early afternoon initially across east-central/possibly North Texas, perhaps generally around I-35, but probably more so toward the I-45 corridor. Lower/some middle 60s F warm-sector dewpoints are expected across south-central to east/southeast Texas into Louisiana, contributing to upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across east/southeast Texas by afternoon, with more minimal/uncertain destabilization northward into southeast Oklahoma and ArkLaTex, where at least some severe risk could still occur. Strong deep-layer/low-level shear, highlighted by 45-55 kt effective shear and 200-300 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH, will support a mixed mode of northeastward-moving bowing segments and semi-discrete/embedded supercells. Isolated large hail will initially be possible, with a damaging wind risk increasing during the afternoon along with the potential for a few tornadoes, potentially including the possibility of a strong tornado (EF2+). Convective intensity and overall severe potential will likely tend to wane progressively into late evening/overnight, but at least a low-end/isolated severe risk will probably persist into parts of Louisiana and possibly as far east as the ArkLaMiss vicinity overnight. ...Guyer.. 12/25/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .