Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Dec 25 2024 05:46:03

ACUS01 KWNS 250545
SWODY1
SPC AC 250544

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1144 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today (Christmas).

....Discussion...

Large-scale pattern, while active, does not appear particularly
favorable for organized robust convection today. Primary
low-latitude short-wave trough, that supported strong/severe
convection over southeast TX Monday night, is progressing across the
lower Sabine River Valley. This feature will continue to deamplify
as it moves across the lower MS Valley into the central Gulf States
late tonight. Even so, some low-level response is expected ahead of
this feature, with 15-20kt 850mb flow forecast to shift across
southern LA into MS this afternoon.

Early this morning, a fairly large complex of thunderstorms has
developed ahead of the short wave from near San Antonio into central
LA. This activity has evolved along/ahead of a progressive surface
front that is expected to shunt the primary corridor of low-level
convergence to near the upper TX Coast by sunrise Christmas morning.
This will displace a plume of modest instability offshore along with
any appreciable risk of organized robust storms. Later this
afternoon, a few strong storms may approach the southeastern-most
portions of LA, but the primary concern should remain offshore.

Elsewhere, strong 12hr mid-level height falls will overspread the
Pacific Northwest along with high-level diffluent flow. Latest model
guidance suggests the surface front will surge inland after 06z, and
post-frontal destabilization is expected to support some risk for
lightning during the latter part of the period with scattered weak
convection.

Otherwise, isolated thunderstorms may develop toward the end of the
period over the southern High Plains ahead of the next digging
short-wave trough. Buoyancy appears too weak to warrant a severe
threat.

...Darrow/Weinman.. 12/25/2024

$$

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