Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2279
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Dec 25 2024 05:02:52

ACUS11 KWNS 250502
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250502=20
TXZ000-250700-

Mesoscale Discussion 2279
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1102 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024

Areas affected...TX Coastal Plain into Southeast TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 712...

Valid 250502Z - 250700Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 712
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated hail remains possible across much of the region.
Some additional severe potential possible over the Middle Texas
Coast and another watch may be needed.

DISCUSSION...Complex convective evolution is underway from the TX
Hill Country into Southeast TX as thunderstorms along the front
begin to interact with prefrontal cellular/supercellular
development. This interaction will likely lead to gradually
diminishing storm strength across much of the region over the next
hour or two. Until then, cellular prefrontal development across much
of the region will likely remain strong to occasionally severe,
supported by steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer
vertical shear.=20

The only exception is from Karnes/Dewitt Counties northeastward into
Fayette County, where the strongest storms are currently ongoing.
Here, downstream buoyancy may be high enough for storms to maintain
surface-based character as the frontal interaction occurs, leading
to upscale growth and a progressive convective line. Increasing
large-scale ascent associated with the approaching shortwave trough
could contribute to this evolution as well. The resulting convective
line would likely push southeastward to the Middle TX Coast with an
attendant threat for damaging gusts and isolated hail. Given this
potential, a downstream watch may be needed shortly.

...Mosier/Gleason.. 12/25/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5Bi7OJ4eSPPO2im48kEqRJrsd-iWL9VlAAzJfmWTkYdnDGZK5fWvZlJDhMWRjnn69rglEXKA5=
chqGCnWXxs9tE-xRZk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   29089526 28139647 27779736 27889779 29019816 30119763
            31049618 31529462 31199385 30359412 29089526=20


=3D =3D =3D
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