Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Dec 24 2024 19:40:27 ACUS01 KWNS 241940 SWODY1 SPC AC 241938 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS... ....SUMMARY... A line of strong to severe thunderstorms, capable of large hail and marginally severe gusts, is expected to develop late this afternoon into this evening across east-central Texas. ....20Z Update... The previous forecast remains on track. An upper-level trough, evident on water vapor imagery, is moving eastward across the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front is located in central and north Texas. Ahead of the front, warming surface temperatures and surface dewpoints in the 60s F have contributed to moderate instability across much of central and east Texas. As the airmass continues to destabilize this afternoon, a line of strong thunderstorms is expected to develop ahead of the front across east-central Texas. The instability, along with strengthening mid-level flow associated with the approaching trough will help storms to become organized. RAP forecast soundings at 00Z for College Station, Texas have MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. This environment will support a threat for supercells with isolated large hail. A marginal wind-damage threat may also develop along the more intense parts of the line. ...Broyles.. 12/24/2024 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024/ ....Central/East TX... Morning water vapor imagery shows a deepening upper trough digging into the TX Panhandle region. Southerly surface winds ahead of the trough will draw 60s surface dewpoints northward into central/east TX, ahead of an approaching cold front. Visible satellite imagery shows partial sunshine in the warm sector, which will lead of steepening low-level lapse rates and further afternoon destabilization. Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will begin to intensify along the cold front by mid-afternoon. Cool temperatures aloft and sufficient deep-layer shear for rotating updrafts will promote a risk of hail in the strongest cells. Activity will build southwestward along the front during the early evening into central TX, with a continued risk of large hail and gusty winds. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .