Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Dec 24 2024 17:16:29 ACUS02 KWNS 241716 SWODY2 SPC AC 241715 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Christmas Day (Wednesday). ....Synopsis... A lead shortwave trough initially along the Middle Texas Gulf Coast region will continue to move east on Wednesday. Model trends continue to show this feature weakening through the day. Further, this trough has also trended slightly southward in placement over the past few model cycles. A secondary, stronger shortwave trough will move through the Four Corners and reach the southern High Plains by Thursday morning. ....Southern Louisiana... Current observations within the Gulf show low 60s F dewpoints offshore. Given the forecast location of the lead shortwave and weakening mass fields during the day, these dewpoints appear more likely to remain generally offshore, south of a weak warm front. While a few thunderstorms appear probable during the afternoon near the boundary, very minimal buoyancy (100-200 J/kg of MLCAPE) suggests the potential for severe storms will remain low. Marginally stronger storms could occur in far southeast Louisiana, where buoyancy could be locally greater. ....West/Northwest Texas... Forcing for ascent will increase towards Thursday morning. Mid-level lapse rates will steepen sufficiently to support a few stronger elevated convective cores. A few isolated lightning flashes will be possible with this activity. ....Pacific Northwest/northern California... With the approach of another shortwave trough late Wednesday night/early Thursday, mid-level height falls/cooling will support isolated thunderstorms along the immediate coastline. ...Wendt.. 12/24/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .