Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Dec 24 2024 06:53:56 ACUS02 KWNS 240653 SWODY2 SPC AC 240652 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Christmas Day (Wednesday). ....Synopsis... In the southern stream, a lead shortwave trough initially over east Texas on Wednesday is expected to steadily weaken toward the Lower Mississippi Valley, while a secondary and more prominent shortwave trough modestly amplifies as it progresses east-southeastward over the southern Rockies toward far west Texas Wednesday night. ....Southern Louisiana... Some thunderstorms may linger Wednesday morning from near the middle/upper Texas coast into Louisiana. It is not entirely clear how far north the warm sector will develop, but it is possible that modest instability develops across far southern Louisiana during the day, although weakening mass field trends would suggest that the main warm/moist sector will remain offshore. If the airmass does modestly destabilize inland, a few strong storms could occur given that moderately strong deep-layer/low-level shear will exist near the warm front. Current thinking is that organized severe potential will remain limited, but this will be reevaluated into the Day 1 time frame. ....West/northwest Texas... Related to the approaching shortwave trough, steadily increasing forcing for ascent via DPVA/warm advection will arrive late Wednesday night. Steepening mid-level lapse rates and minimal buoyancy could potentially support isolated elevated thunderstorm development by daybreak (12z) Thursday. ....Pacific Northwest/northern California... A few near-coastal thunderstorms could occur as a shortwave trough/frontal band approaches the coast and mid-level lapse rates regionally steepen. ...Guyer.. 12/24/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .