Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Dec 24 2024 04:57:58 ACUS01 KWNS 240457 SWODY1 SPC AC 240456 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1056 PM CST Mon Dec 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST... ....SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are likely over much of central into eastern Texas late in the day and overnight, with isolated severe hail or gusty winds. ....Synopsis... An amplified and progressive upper trough will move across the West Coast today, entering the Great Basin by evening. Strong cooling aloft will accompany this system as it move toward UT and AZ by 12Z Wednesday. To the east, a ridge over the Rockies will break down as it pushes east into Plains late, with a developing shortwave trough over the southern Plains as a speed max move out of NM. At the surface, high pressure will be centered over the Great Lakes, with lobes extending into the Southeast, and into the central Plains. Meanwhile, a weak inverted trough will roughly parallel I-35 in TX during the day, with a cold front extending from eastern TX toward the middle TX Coast by Wednesday morning. Southeast winds ahead of this front/trough will result in destabilization, and scattered thunderstorms late in the day and overnight. ....Central and eastern TX... Rain and a few thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing from eastern OK into AR this morning within a warm-advection zone. Additional storms may develop southward into northern TX along the cold front, aided by both cooling aloft and boundary-layer heating. Shear will not be strong with this system, but lapse rates will steepen, especially late in the day into central TX. Here, 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE may develop, with storms likely to increase in coverage along the front by around 00Z. Overall, this setup appears to favor substantial coverage of thunderstorms as moisture streams northwestward toward the front. A cell or two may produce large hail along the southern flank of the line, possibly near the Austin/San Antonio vicinity late in the day. Otherwise, a linear mode is expected as the front continues east, with perhaps locally strong wind gusts. ...Jewell/Weinman.. 12/24/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .