Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Dec 23 2024 17:19:54 ACUS02 KWNS 231719 SWODY2 SPC AC 231718 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS... ....SUMMARY... A few locally severe storms could occur across parts of central and East Texas on Tuesday. ....Synopsis... On Tuesday a progressive upper-level pattern will be present with a positively tilted mid-level trough advancing off the New England Coast, a mid-level trough amplifying across the southern Plains, and a stronger trough moving from off the California coast to the Southwest during the forecast period. Inland low-level moisture will result in some instability, adequate for thunderstorms across portions of the southern Plains. A few of these storms may be severe across central/east Texas. ....Central/East Texas... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period within the warm air advection zone across eastern Oklahoma. South of this activity, isolated convection may be possible within a region of broad ascent associated with a 30 to 35 knot low-level jet. Instability and shear will likely be too weak for severe thunderstorms from this activity. However, by Tuesday afternoon/evening, continued moisture advection and some weak surface heating should result in greater instability along and south of the cold front/composite outflow across northeast Texas. In addition to the greater instability, forcing will increase ahead of the approaching trough and mid-level flow will strengthen. This will likely result in scattered convection amid weak to moderate instability and 30 to 35 knots of shear. Some transient supercell structures may be possible along and ahead of the cold front as it advances southeast through the afternoon and evening. While the low-level flow is forecast to be quite weak, particularly across southeast Texas where instability will be greatest, forecast hodographs do show significant clockwise curvature in the lowest 1 to 2 km. Therefore, a tornado cannot be ruled out, particularly with any stronger/longer-lived supercells which may develop. ....Northern California/Pacific Northwest... As a prominent upper-level trough and related frontal band moves inland, isolated thunderstorms will be possible across northern California coastal areas and the adjacent Central Valley on Tuesday morning with the frontal band and later in the day with post-frontal cellular convection as low/mid-level lapse rates steepen. A more limited/isolated thunderstorm potential will also exist across other parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest. ...Bentley.. 12/23/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .