Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Dec 23 2024 16:19:20

ACUS01 KWNS 231619
SWODY1
SPC AC 231617

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1017 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

Valid 231630Z - 241200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the
contiguous United States.

....Synopsis...
A modifying air mass is returning northward into TX from the western
Gulf basin, and continued low-level warming/moistening will result
in gradual destabilization.  Modest amplification of a midlevel
trough over the southern High Plains, in combination with an
increasingly moist warm advection regime, will support the potential
for a few elevated thunderstorms this evening into tonight across
parts of OK/north TX.  There is also a small chance for
near-surface-based thunderstorms along a confluence zone from
Matagorda Bay northward into the western parts of southeast TX.

Otherwise, a midlevel trough over the eastern Pacific will approach
northern CA late in the period, when weak destabilization could
support sufficiently deep convection for isolated lightning flashes.
Farther east, the potential for deep convection will increase
through the period in association with air mass modification and
weak cyclogenesis in the vicinity of the Gulf Stream.  However, the
potential for thunderstorms is expected to remain offshore.

...Thompson/Moore.. 12/23/2024

$$

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