Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Dec 23 2024 07:03:22 ACUS02 KWNS 230702 SWODY2 SPC AC 230700 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS... ....SUMMARY... A few locally severe storms could occur across parts of central and East Texas on Tuesday. ....Central/East Texas... A southern-stream shortwave trough will amplify and spread east-southeastward on Tuesday across the south-central Plains toward the Ozarks. Low-level moisture will modestly increase across the Texas coastal plain into south-central/east Texas during the day. Lower 60s F surface dewpoints will become increasingly common inland ahead a southeast-moving cold front that will extend from north-central Texas southwestward toward the Edwards Plateau Tuesday afternoon. In proximity to a surface wave and near/north of a warm front, scattered convection should be ongoing Tuesday morning across far north/northeast Texas and the ArkLaTex vicinity/southeast Oklahoma. Modest diurnal destabilization (up to 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) should occur ahead of the southeastward-moving effective cold front, mainly across south-central to east/southeast Texas including the I-35/I-45 corridors. As this occurs, a diurnally related intensification of storms is expected near the southeast-advancing front, and possibly also in the nearby free warm sector during the afternoon. A few of these storms could be severe. Effective shear will not be overly strong (30-35 kt), including some flow weakness continuing to be noted in model soundings around 2-3 km AGL. Even so, some organized storm modes including weak/transient supercells could occur with marginally severe hail and/or a few locally severe wind gusts, mainly during the afternoon and evening. ....Northern California/Pacific Northwest... As a prominent upper-level trough and related frontal band moves inland, isolated thunderstorms will be possible across northern California coastal areas and interior valley on Tuesday, early in the day with the frontal band and with post-frontal cellular convection during the day as low/mid-level lapse rates steepen. A more limited/isolated thunderstorm potential will also exist across other parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest. ...Guyer.. 12/23/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .