Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Dec 23 2024 05:18:46 ACUS01 KWNS 230518 SWODY1 SPC AC 230517 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CST Sun Dec 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. A few thunderstorms are expected over parts of the Southern Plains. ....Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough will extend from Quebec southwestward toward the Upper Great Lakes today, moving into the Northeast by Tuesday morning. To the west, an upper ridge will rapidly amplify along the West Coast as a deep upper trough approaches late. In advance of the amplifying ridge over the Intermountain West, weak troughiness will develop over the Plains. At the surface, high pressure will remain over the East, while a weak trough develops over the southern Plains. To the west of this surface trough, weak cold front will push south across the central and southern High Plains, while southerly winds bring moisture northward over central TX. The greatest probability of general thunderstorms appears to be over parts of TX into southern OK, during the evening and overnight. Here, southwest 850 mb flow over 30 kt will aid moisture advection and elevated destabilization. Weak shear and instability will preclude any severe chances. Elsewhere, increasing warm advection and moistening ahead of the western trough late in the day will bring widespread precipitation to WA, OR, and northern CA. A low chance of a few lightning flashes will exist over northern CA, with overall coverage should remain low. ...Jewell/Weinman.. 12/23/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .