Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Dec 22 2024 20:00:46

ACUS01 KWNS 222000
SWODY1
SPC AC 221959

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 PM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

Valid 222000Z - 231200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States through tonight.

....20Z Update...
Lightning flashes continue to be observed just offshore of the
northern CA coastline as a mid-level trough approaches the Pacific
Northwest. As the mid-level trough continues to advance toward the
coastline later this afternoon and evening, increased mid-level
cooling aloft will encourage at least isolated onshore thunderstorm
development. As such, no changes have been made to the previous
forecast.

...Squitieri.. 12/22/2024

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024/

....Northern CA/Pacific Northwest coast through tonight...
Lightning flashes have been observed this morning within a
baroclinic band roughly 150 mi off the northern CA coast, in
association with a midlevel shortwave trough that will move inland
later today into tonight.  The potential for isolated lightning
flashes inland will begin this afternoon with elevated convection in
the warm conveyor belt across northwest CA/southwest OR.  Other
isolated lightning flashes may also occur this evening into early
tonight along the WA coast as steeper low-midlevel lapse rates and
weak buoyancy spread inland.

$$

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