Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Dec 22 2024 19:30:14 ACUS03 KWNS 221930 SWODY3 SPC AC 221929 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Sun Dec 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ....SUMMARY... A few strong storms could occur across parts of south-central and southeast Texas on Tuesday. ....Synopsis... A progressive upper-level pattern will be present on Tuesday as a positively tilted mid-level trough moves off the Northeast Coast. A weaker positively tilted trough amplifies across the central CONUS and a much stronger trough moves inland across the West Coast. Overall, high pressure will dominate most of the CONUS with a weak low-pressure center along a frontal zone in the southern Plains and weak low-pressure in the InterMountain West. ....Southern Plains... Low to mid 60s dewpoints will advect inland across southern/eastern Texas on Tuesday as low-level flow strengthens south of a developing cold front. Mid-level cooling ahead of the approaching mid-level shortwave trough will steepen lapse rates and result in weak to potentially moderate instability. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near the surface front Tuesday morning with the front/composite outflow drifting slowly south during the day. Some diurnal increase in intensity is possible from this activity. In addition, strengthening of the low-level jet through the day may provide enough isentropic ascent for scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening across the open warm sector. Initially, deep-layer shear will be weak during the morning, but will increase to around 30 to 35 knots by the afternoon/early evening. This could result in some rotating updrafts with the potential for some large hail or a few wind gusts. ....Pacific Northwest/Northern California... A surface front will likely be located somewhere near the northern/central California coast at 12Z Tuesday. Forecast soundings ahead of this front show shallow/weak instability which could favor an isolated wind gust, but lightning activity should be minimal. A better chance for open-cell convection will be during the afternoon along the Pacific Northwest/California coast as mid-level temps cool and deeper instability develops. However, by this time, relatively weak flow should limit storm organization/intensity. ...Bentley.. 12/22/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .