Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Dec 20 2024 05:11:50

ACUS01 KWNS 200511
SWODY1
SPC AC 200510

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 PM CST Thu Dec 19 2024

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible early morning Saturday along a
portion of the northern California coast.

....Discussion...
A quiescent pattern for thunderstorm potential will persist across
much of the CONUS. One exception will be along the northern CA coast
near the end of the period (09-12Z) early Saturday morning.

A broad upper trough extending south from a Gulf of AK low will
progress northeastward and reach the Pacific Northwest coast this
afternoon. After this wave dampens, an upstream shortwave trough
will similarly track northeastward to offshore of the Pacific
Northwest coast through 12Z Saturday. A stronger low-level warm
conveyor will become established ahead of this latter trough. This
will yield moistening in the 850-700 mb layer with the northern
periphery of a meager MUCAPE plume approaching the northern CA coast
early Saturday morning. Despite modest mid-level lapse rates, rather
strong forcing for ascent in conjunction with scant, elevated
buoyancy should support a threat for isolated thunderstorms. These
will likely be embedded within the broader swath of rain showers
that reach the coast between 09-12Z.

...Grams/Weinman.. 12/20/2024

$$

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