Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Dec 19 2024 04:50:14

ACUS01 KWNS 190450
SWODY1
SPC AC 190448

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1048 PM CST Wed Dec 18 2024

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

....NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight.

....Discussion...
A quiescent pattern for thunderstorms is expected over the CONUS
today through tonight. A weakening cold front will become
increasingly ill-defined as it settles southward over the FL
Peninsula. A few, low-topped showers might form along it this
afternoon. But the lack of adequate convergence and weak mid-level
lapse rates should preclude thunderstorm development over land.

Elsewhere, scant elevated buoyancy may accompany a progressive
shortwave trough as it tracks from the northern Great Plains to the
OH Valley. With a cold thermodynamic profile, this minimal buoyancy
would emanate from sub-freezing parcels rooted near 700 mb. A few
flashes might occur along the southern envelope of winter
precipitation in the MN/IA to WI/IL border vicinity this
morning/afternoon. This could produce a very isolated thunder
threat, but probabilities appear below 10 percent.

...Grams/Lyons.. 12/19/2024

$$

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