Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Dec 18 2024 19:47:08 ACUS01 KWNS 181947 SWODY1 SPC AC 181945 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Wed Dec 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through the rest of the period. Scattered thunderstorms will continue across portions of the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic. ....20z... The severe risk has diminished across middle and eastern Tennessee as of 20z, prompting the removal of the remaining Marginal risk area. Thunderstorm activity will continue across the Southeast and into the Mid-Atlantic along the front this afternoon. See previous discussion for more information. ...Thornton/Gleason.. 12/18/2024 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Wed Dec 18 2024/ ....Middle/Eastern Tennessee and Vicinity... A line of convection along/near a cold front will continue to progress steadily eastward across parts of eastern KY, middle/eastern TN and northern AL. This activity is generally outpacing greater low-level moisture to its south, and related instability. Isolated strong to damaging winds still appear possible for a couple more hours while the line can maintain its intensity, even though boundary-layer instability and lapse rates aloft remain rather weak. But, expectations are for the line to weaken quickly by early/mid afternoon as it encounters the higher terrain of the Appalachians and an even less favorable thermodynamic environment. ....Remainder of Southeast into the Southern Mid-Atlantic... Continued low-level warm/moist advection will occur today ahead of an eastward-moving upper trough and related surface cold front. While a conditionally somewhat favorable environment to support organized severe convection should exist across parts of the Southeast into the Carolinas ahead of the front, limited low-level convergence and poor lapse rates/instability should tend to hinder thunderstorm development for most areas. Convection does appear more probable across parts of central/south FL this afternoon and evening, but weak shear should limit severe potential. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .