Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Dec 18 2024 16:50:10 ACUS02 KWNS 181650 SWODY2 SPC AC 181648 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Wed Dec 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ....Synopsis... A broad mid/upper-level trough with multiple embedded shortwaves will remain in place across much of the central/eastern CONUS on Thursday. Within the large-scale trough, one strong shortwave will move eastward off of the New England coast, while another moves southeastward from the Great Plains toward the Ohio Valley and Southeast. A weaker shortwave trough will move across Florida during the morning and early afternoon. Farther west, a low-amplitude mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across parts of WA/OR during the day. A dearth of low-level moisture and instability should generally limit thunderstorm potential across most of the CONUS. Some convection may linger early in the period near the NC coast, but thunderstorm potential in this area is expected to remain offshore. Otherwise, isolated storm development cannot be ruled out across parts of south FL. ....Parts of Florida... In the wake of a weak frontal passage, very light low-level northerly flow is expected on Thursday across much of the FL Peninsula. Lingering low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the 60s F) will support modest diurnal destabilization. However, despite the presence of the approaching shortwave trough and increasing mid/upper-level flow, there is currently very little signal for deep convection across the peninsula on Thursday, likely resulting from modest to poor midlevel lapse rates and weak to negligible low-level convergence and ascent. A conditional general thunderstorm area has been maintained across parts of south FL, where somewhat stronger heating/destabilization is possible, though confidence in storm development remains low. ...Dean.. 12/18/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .