Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Dec 18 2024 16:30:08

ACUS01 KWNS 181630
SWODY1
SPC AC 181628

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1028 AM CST Wed Dec 18 2024

Valid 181630Z - 191200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
MIDDLE/EASTERN TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN ALABAMA...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to damaging wind gusts remain possible into early
afternoon across parts of the Tennessee Valley region.

....Middle/Eastern Tennessee and Vicinity...
A line of convection along/near a cold front will continue to
progress steadily eastward across parts of eastern KY,
middle/eastern TN and northern AL. This activity is generally
outpacing greater low-level moisture to its south, and related
instability. Isolated strong to damaging winds still appear possible
for a couple more hours while the line can maintain its intensity,
even though boundary-layer instability and lapse rates aloft remain
rather weak. But, expectations are for the line to weaken quickly by
early/mid afternoon as it encounters the higher terrain of the
Appalachians and an even less favorable thermodynamic environment.

....Remainder of Southeast into the Southern Mid-Atlantic...
Continued low-level warm/moist advection will occur today ahead of
an eastward-moving upper trough and related surface cold front.
While a conditionally somewhat favorable environment to support
organized severe convection should exist across parts of the
Southeast into the Carolinas ahead of the front, limited low-level
convergence and poor lapse rates/instability should tend to hinder
thunderstorm development for most areas. Convection does appear more
probable across parts of central/south FL this afternoon and
evening, but weak shear should limit severe potential.

...Gleason/Squitieri.. 12/18/2024

$$

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