Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Dec 17 2024 17:31:36 ACUS02 KWNS 171731 SWODY2 SPC AC 171730 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ....SUMMARY... Isolated damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado are possible through mid-day Wednesday across portions of the Tennessee Valley. ....Synopsis... A positively tilted upper trough will develop east across the eastern U.S. on Wednesday. Moderate mid/upper level southwesterly flow ahead of the trough will overspread the OH/TN Valleys into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic regions. At the surface, a cold front will extend from southern OH to southeast AR to central TX at the beginning of the period. This front will develop southeast across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, mostly moving offshore from the Gulf and Atlantic coasts by Thursday morning. ....Northeast Texas to the Tennessee Valley... Thunderstorms will be ongoing along a frontal zone from northeast Texas to western Tennessee at the beginning of the forecast period. These storms will likely be mostly anafrontal due to the southeastward advancing cold front and storm motion parallel to the front. In addition, these storms should already be in their weakening phase by 12Z as they outrun the better low-level instability. The only exception will be across western/middle Tennessee between 12 and 18Z where some instability will remain and stronger flow could promote more organization/propagation ahead of the cold front. A damaging wind gust or a brief tornado cannot be ruled out early in the forecast period. Despite the weakening instability through the morning, some damaging wind threat could persist into parts of eastern Tennessee and far southern Kentucky through mid-day as the low-level jet strengthens to over 50 knots during the morning hours. ....FL/GA/Carolinas... Southerly flow ahead of the approaching mid-level trough will establish low to mid 60s dewpoints across much of Florida into eastern Georgia and the eastern Carolinas by Wednesday afternoon. Weak to moderate instability is expected within a broad region of weak isentropic ascent across the region. Upper-level forcing will lag well behind the front which should keep any thunderstorm development isolated. However, if any storms develop, they could have some marginal hail/wind threat given moderate instability and shear present across the region Wednesday afternoon. Storm coverage concerns related to weak forcing are the primary limiting factor to severe weather probabilities at this time. ...Bentley.. 12/17/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .