Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Dec 17 2024 07:51:54

FOUS30 KWBC 170751
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
251 AM EST Tue Dec 17 2024

Day 1
Valid 12Z Tue Dec 17 2024 - 12Z Wed Dec 18 2024

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE EAST CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA...

Model consensus is for increasingly active showers late Tuesday=20
afternoon into Tuesday night/early Wednesday along the east central
to southeast coast of Florida. Low level easterly to southeasterly
flow in an axis of PW values 1.5 to 2+ standard deviations above=20
the mean expected to persist into the east central to southeast=20
Florida coast, with models showing an axis of defined boundary=20
layer convergence in this low level inflow axis parallel to the=20
east central to southeast coast. There will be potential for very=20
slow moving cells along the coastal regions, supporting locally=20
very heavy rainfall amounts and an urban flash flood threat. HREF=20
neighborhood probabilities are high (50-90%) for 3"+ amounts from=20
Cape Canaveral, south to Miami, while the 5"+ neighborhood=20
probabilities are high (60-90%) from near West Palm Beach, south to
Miami. The best hi res overlap, evident in the greatest EAS=20
probabilities for 2"+ amounts, is from near West Palm, south to=20
just north of Miami.=20

Oravec


Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Dec 18 2024 - 12Z Thu Dec 19 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Oravec


Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Dec 19 2024 - 12Z Fri Dec 20 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Oravec


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4jjWgDMSJmHWJCMzuXA6keymQfOVmYlnqQVn_N9cklbV=
JqS2hL3p6yJEKCODXQfltCTas8mllKOFrcrCT-aBGhqwHfQ$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4jjWgDMSJmHWJCMzuXA6keymQfOVmYlnqQVn_N9cklbV=
JqS2hL3p6yJEKCODXQfltCTas8mllKOFrcrCT-aBf-wCvgg$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4jjWgDMSJmHWJCMzuXA6keymQfOVmYlnqQVn_N9cklbV=
JqS2hL3p6yJEKCODXQfltCTas8mllKOFrcrCT-aB4SmeHl0$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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