Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Dec 17 2024 05:47:02 ACUS01 KWNS 170546 SWODY1 SPC AC 170545 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible tonight through early morning Wednesday across parts of the Red River into Western Tennessee. ....Synopsis... A shortwave trough over the Northwest will amplify across the central states, with an embedded impulse moving into the Lower MO Valley to TX Panhandle by early morning Wednesday. Mid-level height falls and the southern periphery of west-southwesterlies above 40 kts at 500 mb will overspread the Red River to KY/TN. At the surface, a front in the Ark-La-Tex to TN Valley will gradually advance north. A minor surface cyclone should develop over the Lower MO Valley, with a trailing cold front accelerating late as a surface ridge builds down the High Plains. ....Mid-South... Convective potential will be focused tonight, when large-scale ascent increases ahead of the sharpening shortwave trough. Scattered to eventually widespread thunderstorms are expected overnight into early morning Wednesday. Deep-layer shear will initially be modest within a unidirectional west-southwesterly profile, but will increase late, especially along and east of the MS River. A pocket of modest buoyancy characterized by MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg should be centered near the Ark-La-Tex. Progressively weaker surface-based instability is expected with northeast extent, with uncertainty on how far that may extend beyond western TN. The western portion of sustained convection will offer potential for small to marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts. But these storms should tend to get undercut during the early morning, given the orientation of the deep-layer shear vector and the accelerating cold front. A broadening southwest/northeast-oriented convective line will probably evolve across parts of AR/TN. Hodograph curvature should be adequate for a threat of a brief tornado and isolated damaging gusts with the strongest embedded cells through the pre-dawn hours. ...Grams/Lyons.. 12/17/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .