Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Dec 16 2024 17:17:26 ACUS02 KWNS 161717 SWODY2 SPC AC 161715 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are expected from the southern Plains to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valley vicinities and across Florida on Tuesday. Severe-thunderstorm chances are low at this time. ....Synopsis... A mid-level jet streak across the Northwest early on Tuesday will start to dig southeast toward the central Plains and sharpen the mid-level trough by Tuesday night. As this occurs, a weak surface low will develop across eastern Colorado and move into the Lower Ohio Valley by the end of the period. A surface front associated with this area of low pressure will accelerate southeast, particularly after 06Z and end up somewhere from Memphis to Waco by 12Z Wednesday. ....ArkLatex into central Arkansas... Despite broad, weak isentropic ascent through the day, only isolated thunderstorm activity is expected from east Texas into the Ozarks due to neutral heights aloft. However, thunderstorm activity is expected to increase after 06Z as the mid-level trough strengthens and approaches the southern Plains/ArkLaTex and a surface front becomes better defined and accelerates southeast. Forecast soundings show moderate instability (1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE) and lapse rates (~7 C/km) from southern Arkansas to the ArkLaTex. However, the stronger flow will remain mostly across northern Arkansas into the Ohio Valley. Therefore, shear will be relatively weak where thunderstorm activity is most likely along the front from 06Z to 12Z. This will likely result in loosely organized storms which will likely be undercut by the advancing cold front. While isolated hail or a wind gust or two cannot be ruled out, severe weather probabilities remain low. ....Florida... Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected across much of the Florida Peninsula as 1200-1500 J/kg MLCAPE develops during peak heating. Shear will be mostly less than 20 knots which should limit storm organization. However, moderate instability and scattered to widespread storm development could result in some small hail or gusty winds. Overall, severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Bentley.. 12/16/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .