Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Dec 16 2024 05:56:22

ACUS01 KWNS 160556
SWODY1
SPC AC 160554

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2024

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected today or tonight.

....Synopsis...
A progressive mid-level trough over the northern Plains is forecast
to move eastward and intensify over the Great Lakes tonight. As the
upper trough strengths, so too will an attendant surface cyclone
moving across southern Canada. As the low moves east, an
accompanying cold front will be in place from Ontario to the
ArkLaTex. This front will move east southeastward through much of
the day before weakening and stalling across northeast TX this
evening into early Tuesday. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are
expected from the lower OH Valley to the ArklaTex, with isolated
storms possible across western OR and southern FL.

....Ozarks and the ArkLaTex...
Along and south of the front, low-level advection of a seasonably
moist air mass will support scattered to numerous storms overnight,
prior to the Day 1 period across eastern OK and the Ozark Plateau.
These storms, a few of which could be stronger, will likely continue
through daybreak as residual buoyancy and moderate deep-layer shear
slowly weaken. Any strong storm activity should quickly wane as the
upper trough departs to the northeast and storms begin to move north
of the more buoyant warm sector.

Convection should gradually redevelop across northern LA,
central/southern AR, into northeast TX later this afternoon into the
evening. While muted from lingering cloud cover, forecast soundings
show a modest increase in buoyancy as surface temperatures warm to
near 70 F amid mid 60s F dewpoints. A stronger storm or two may pose
a risk for an occasional strong gust as the front moves slowly
southeast. However, decreasing large-scale ascent with mid-level
height rises and weakening vertical shear suggest limited potential
for storm organization and longevity. This, along with modest low
and mid-level lapse rates should keep severe potential below 5%.

...Lyons/Grams.. 12/16/2024

$$

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