Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Dec 15 2024 06:21:15 ACUS02 KWNS 150621 SWODY2 SPC AC 150619 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to be low on Monday. ....TX/OK/MO to the Lower MS Valley... An upper trough over the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest Monday morning will weaken as it shifts east/northeast across the Great Lakes. The strongest deep-layer southwesterly flow associated with this system will mainly be focused over the Mid/Lower MO and Mid-MS Valleys into the Great Lakes. Though, modest vertical shear will extend as far south as eastern OK and the Ozarks into the ArkLaTex vicinity. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to extend from southeast MO into southeast OK and northwest Texas Monday morning. This front will track east/southeast through the period, becoming positioned from the TN Valley toward the ArkLaTex and central TX by Tuesday morning. Ahead of the front, upper 50s to mid 60s dewpoints will be maintained by south/southwesterly low-level flow from central TX toward the MO Bootheel and the Lower MS Valley. Scattered elevated thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing from eastern OK into southern MO and parts of AR. Additional convection will develop near the southeast-advancing cold front as far northeast as the Lower OH Valley and southeast into central TX and the ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley through the period. Stronger large-scale ascent and vertical shear will remain focused north, and out of phase with, the area of better low-level moisture across the south-central states. A couple of stronger storms may produce small hail early in the period from eastern OK toward the MO Bootheel. However, low-level inhibition and poor low-level lapse rates are expected to limit surface-based instability. Deep-layer flow parallel to the surface boundary, limited surface-based instability, and weakening shear/ascent with southward extent, should limit overall severe potential on Monday. ...Leitman.. 12/15/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .