Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Dec 14 2024 19:19:07

FOUS30 KWBC 141918
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
218 PM EST Sat Dec 14 2024

Day 1
Valid 16Z Sat Dec 14 2024 - 12Z Sun Dec 15 2024

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...

Rainfall intensity is on the decrease across California as the
shortwave moves inland and both PW and IVT decline. Thus we were
able to drop the risk level to Marginal with this update. Still
could see some isolated rainfall totals exceeding 0.5" in an hour
as the core of the compact shortwave moves inland, but any of
these heavier showers should be transient in nature. Thus any flood
impacts driven by additional rainfall should stay localized. The
threat of seeing over 0.5" an hour decreases even further after
18z, and so we may be able to drop the Marginal risk by this
afternoon.

Chenard

Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Dec 15 2024 - 12Z Mon Dec 16 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Tate

Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Dec 16 2024 - 12Z Tue Dec 17 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Tate


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9bd0WWghMkCIBDSiD_Pk-lW4S_kwPvSHtq-sZYfiSmyq=
IcWWjyfPma1DWlIn3-qWSbbN7ImeFz2jK-P6HLnZEriqSQA$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9bd0WWghMkCIBDSiD_Pk-lW4S_kwPvSHtq-sZYfiSmyq=
IcWWjyfPma1DWlIn3-qWSbbN7ImeFz2jK-P6HLnZdEqkeE8$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9bd0WWghMkCIBDSiD_Pk-lW4S_kwPvSHtq-sZYfiSmyq=
IcWWjyfPma1DWlIn3-qWSbbN7ImeFz2jK-P6HLnZqKFi15c$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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