Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Dec 14 2024 16:31:41

ACUS01 KWNS 141631
SWODY1
SPC AC 141630

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2024

Valid 141630Z - 151200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

....Coastal California...
The Marginal Risk across parts of coastal CA has been removed with
this update. The 12Z OAK sounding showed a dearth of boundary-layer
instability, and a line of low-topped convection has weakened as it
moves inland in tandem with a shortwave trough also tracking quickly
eastward. While strong winds will remain possible in the short term
given the enhanced low/mid-level flow noted on recent VWPs from
KMUX, the lack of appreciable surface-based instability is expected
to limit the overall severe threat for the rest of the period.

....East/Southeast Texas...
A shortwave trough over the southern/central Plains this morning
will continue to eject eastward across the mid MS Valley through
tonight. Related surface low over eastern KS is forecast to weaken
in this time frame, as high pressure will remain entrenched over the
East Coast. A cold front is expected to stall over parts of east to
central TX later today. While a favorably moist low-level airmass
will be in place ahead of this front, limited large-scale ascent and
poor lapse rates aloft should hinder robust updrafts and organized
severe potential across east/southeast TX.

...Gleason/Halbert.. 12/14/2024

$$

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