Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Dec 14 2024 05:51:09 ACUS02 KWNS 140551 SWODY2 SPC AC 140549 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain limited on Sunday. ....Synopsis... An upper trough will shift east into the Plains Sunday night into early Monday. As a result, enhanced deep-layer southwesterly mid/upper flow will envelop the central/southern Plains toward the Mid/Upper MS Valley. At the surface, a deepening low will track east along the international border in the vicinity of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. A trailing cold front is forecast to move southeast across much of the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest, becoming positioned from central MO southwestward into northwest TX by 12z Monday. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the aforementioned front will allow upper 50s to mid 60s dewpoints to spread northward across much of TX into eastern OK, LA, AR and southern MO. Shortwave upper ridging for much of the period prior to 03z will likely preclude thunderstorm activity within the warm conveyor. However, stronger height falls associated with the ejecting trough will overspread the southern Plains (though stronger large-scale ascent will remain focused further north). Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely to develop near the southeastward-advancing cold front in the 06-12z time frame. Favorable, vertically veering wind profiles suggest some thunderstorm organization will be possible. However, convection is expected to mostly remain elevated in nature given cool surface temperatures overnight, resulting in little surface-based instability and poor low-level lapse rates. Furthermore, deep-layer flow will remain parallel to the front, resulting in convection tracking to the cool side of the boundary. Given cool temperatures aloft and midlevel lapse rates approaching 7 C/km in a moderately sheared environment, some small hail could accompany the strongest updrafts across eastern OK into parts of AR and southern MO. However, overall severe potential appears low/too conditional to include probabilities at this time given stronger large-scale ascent focused further north of better low-level moisture, and expectation for limited surface-based instability. ...Leitman.. 12/14/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .