Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Dec 14 2024 05:48:37 ACUS01 KWNS 140548 SWODY1 SPC AC 140547 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE BAY AREA TO CENTRAL COAST OF CA... ....SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe gusts may accompany low-topped thunderstorms this morning across parts of the Bay Area and Central Coast of California. ....Bay Area to Central Coast of CA... A vigorous shortwave impulse, embedded within the basal portion of a northeast Pacific upper trough, will rapidly approach the Bay Area this morning. Very strong forcing for ascent will accompany this wave, supporting low-topped thunderstorms, as evidenced by ongoing CG lightning around 400-500 miles off the coast. While the time of day (12-16Z) will be unfavorable, a narrow corridor of meager surface-based instability should approach the coast. This should overlap the western portion of a 55-65 kt low-level jet. Despite the low-topped nature of thunderstorms, linear clusters within the low-level warm conveyor and near the attendant surface low will be capable of producing strong to isolated severe gusts. This threat should diminish by late morning as the shortwave trough rapidly progresses inland with negligible surface-based instability. ....East-Southeast TX... As a compact shortwave trough progresses from the central Great Plains eastward into the Midwest, its attendant minor surface wave will undergo cyclolysis by early Sunday. The accompanying cold front trailing to its south-southwest should stall and weaken in parts of northeast to central TX. The low-level warm conveyor ahead of the front will foster elevated thunderstorms, mainly this morning that linger into the afternoon. Some surface-based development is possible along the trailing portion into east-southeast TX should adequate boundary-layer heating of low to mid 60s surface dew points occur. But with weakening large-scale ascent/deep-layer shear and muted mid-level lapse rates, severe potential appears negligible. ...Grams/Lyons.. 12/14/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .