Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Dec 13 2024 09:39:31 ACUS48 KWNS 130939 SWOD48 SPC AC 130937 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ....DISCUSSION... A shortwave upper trough will traverse the Midwest and Great Lakes region on Day 4/Mon. Meanwhile, a cold front will track southeast across the southern Plains and Mid-South vicinity, extending from northern AL toward the Upper TX Coast/south-central TX by early Day 5/Tue. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will bring Gulf moisture across the south and east Texas into the lower MS Valley/central Gulf coast region, aiding in modest destabilization on Monday. However, stronger mid/upper level flow and large-scale ascent will remain north over the Midwest. Furthermore, deep-layer flow will mostly be parallel to the cold front. As a result, warm-advection precipitation and thunderstorms are likely from east TX into the Lower MS Valley, but severe potential appears limited. The cold front from Day 4/Mon will likely stall on Day 5/Tue across parts of the TX coast and Lower MS Valley. By late Tuesday into Day 6/Wed, another upper trough is expected to eject across the Plains into the Southeast. A sharper cold front associated with this system will move offshore the Gulf coast, with some potential for heavy rain and thunderstorms. However, given prior days' convection, poor heating/widespread cloudiness and weak instability, severe potential is not expected. Given the strong cold front intruding into the Gulf, boundary-layer moisture will become scant and severe- thunderstorm potential is expected to be low Days 7-8/Thu-Fri. ...Leitman.. 12/13/2024 = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .