Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Dec 13 2024 05:32:29 ACUS01 KWNS 130532 SWODY1 SPC AC 130530 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ....Central US... Significant low-latitude energy currently extends across the southwestern US, with a split-flow regime noted at 500mb. Late-evening satellite imagery depicts a low-amplitude short-wave trough ejecting northeast across northern Mexico, but a much stronger feature approaching the Four Corners. This lead short wave will encourage modified boundary-layer moisture to begin advancing north across TX into the southern Plains early in the period. LLJ is forecast to increase Friday night across eastern OK into the lower MO Valley, as strong height falls spread into the central Plains. Latest model guidance suggests gradual air mass destabilization will occur within the warm-advection regime. Forecast soundings suggest scattered convection should develop during the overnight hours when elevated parcels become uninhibited by steepening lapse rates, and weaker inhibition. Current thinking is this activity should prove too weak to warrant any meaningful risk for severe hail. ....Northern California... Short-wave ridging will dominate CA early in the period, then substantial height falls will spread east ahead of a strong short-wave trough. While this feature will not advance inland until later in the day2 period, high-level diffluent flow will support frontal convection. Although the majority of convection should be focused along the boundary offshore, latest guidance suggests the wind shift will approach the northern CA coast by 12z. Forecast soundings exhibit weak, elevated MUCAPE ahead of the boundary, and around 100 J/kg SBCAPE near the actual cold front as profiles cool. A few flashes of lightning may be noted with the stronger updrafts. ...Darrow/Lyons.. 12/13/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .