Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Dec 11 2024 16:28:47 ACUS01 KWNS 111628 SWODY1 SPC AC 111626 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FROM EASTERN NC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm winds and a few tornadoes are possible from the eastern Carolinas to southern New England. Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur southward into portions of Florida. ....Delmarva region into the Carolinas... A large and fast-moving upper trough is tracking across the TN Valley and Gulf Coast region today, with the associated surface cold front sweeping toward the East Coast. Low and mid level wind fields are very strong ahead of the front, with VAD observations and model guidance suggesting 50-70 knot southwesterly flow in the 1-2km layer throughout the area. This will lead to a conditional risk of damaging winds and tornadoes in organized thunderstorms that can develop. However, thermodynamics are quite weak, limiting overall confidence in the extent of severe activity later today. Morning CAM solutions continue to suggest the development of a fine-line of convection this afternoon along the front from the Delmarva region southward into the Carolinas. This appears to be the area of highest confidence in locally gusty/damaging thunderstorm winds and a tornado or two. ....Southern New England... Rapid surface cyclogenesis and intense low-level wind fields will result in some risk of damaging winds in the fast-moving showers that affect Southern New England this afternoon. Forecast soundings show very weak instability, suggesting that frontal activity may struggle to develop robust updrafts/lightning. Will maintain the ongoing SLGT due to the conditional risk, but confidence in the coverage of severe weather is not very high. ....FL... The southern end of the frontal band of convection will sweep across the FL Peninsula this afternoon, with scattered thunderstorms expected to continue. This area will be farthest removed from the synoptic system, but will have better low level moisture/instability. A few strong storms are expected, capable of gusty winds and perhaps a tornado. ...Hart/Squitieri.. 12/11/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .