Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Dec 10 2024 16:20:38

ACUS01 KWNS 101620
SWODY1
SPC AC 101619

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1019 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024

Valid 101630Z - 111200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING FROM CENTRAL ALABAMA INTO WEST-CENTRAL GEORGIA...

....SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms may affect portions of central
Alabama into west-central Georgia through this evening.

....AL/GA...
The subtropical jet extends across the Gulf Coast region today, with
several subtle shortwave troughs suggested in water vapor imagery
that will affect parts of FL/AL/GA.  Ample low-level moisture is
present across central/southern AL/GA with dewpoints in the
mid-upper 60s - yielding MUCAPE around 500 J/kg.  Several 12z CAM
solutions indicate a mesoscale low-level jet max that will intensify
ahead of the cluster of showers/thunderstorms over west-central AL.
This will lead to enhanced low-level vertical shear and forcing,
providing  support for a few supercell/bowing storm structures and
the risk of  a tornado or two and damaging wind gusts.  Given these
trends, have opted to upgrade this corridor to SLGT.  Refer to MCD
#2256 for further short-term details.

....Carolinas...
Late tonight, the rapidly amplifying upper jet over the TN valley
will lead to an organizing band of showers and low-topped
thunderstorms along the cold front over SC/NC.  It still looks like
the main intensification of this line will occur after 12z, so will
not expand the MRGL risk farther east.  However, this area will
continue to be re-evaluated in later outlooks.

...Hart/Squitieri.. 12/10/2024

$$

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