Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Dec 10 2024 09:58:33

ACUS48 KWNS 100958
SWOD48
SPC AC 100957

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a shortwave trough
will move from the central Rockies through the central Plains on
D4/Friday. An associated surface low will take a similar track just
ahead of the parent wave, with an attendant cold front pushing
eastward across the southern/central Plains. Some modest moisture
return will precede this front, and thunderstorms appear possible
from east TX into the Lower MO Valley D4/Friday night into
D5/Saturday morning. A few strong storms are possible, but overall
buoyancy will likely remain modest due to warm mid-level
temperatures, and the highest dewpoints are expected to remain
displaced south of the better forcing.

This shortwave and attendant cold front will likely continue
eastward on into the MS Valley on D5/Saturday and through the
remainder of the eastern CONUS on D6/Sunday. Thunderstorms are
possible over portions of the Lower MS Valley and Mid-South on
D5/Saturday and the Carolinas on D6/Sunday. Limited buoyancy should
keep any severe-weather threat isolated.

Another shortwave trough is expected to move across CA and the Great
Basin on D6/Sunday and through the central Plains and Mid MS Valley
on D7/Monday. Similar to the earlier shortwave, the strongest
forcing for ascent with this shortwave is expected to remain
displaced north of the better low-level moisture and buoyancy,
likely tempering the overall severe potential. Even so,
thunderstorms are possible, and greater moisture return (and
buoyancy) is possible if the preceding cold front remains weak over
the southern Plains.

...Mosier.. 12/10/2024

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