Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Dec 10 2024 05:49:03

ACUS01 KWNS 100548
SWODY1
SPC AC 100547

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1147 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

....SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of
the central Gulf Coast region into southwestern Georgia and the
Florida Panhandle today.

....Synopsis...
An amplifying upper trough will cross the central third of the U.S.
today, taking on weak negative tilt by late in the period as it
reaches the Mississippi Valley vicinity.  Accompanying the upper
system, a gradually sharpening cold front -- lying across the
Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valleys early -- will make steady
eastward progress.  By Wednesday morning, the front should extend
from the Lower Great Lakes southward to the southern Appalachians,
and then southwestward into the central and western Gulf of Mexico.

....Southeastern Louisiana to southwestern Georgia and the Florida
Panhandle...
Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms are forecast across
the central Gulf Coast region and Southeast, ahead of the advancing
upper trough, and accompanying cold front.  A broad/moist boundary
layer will continue spreading across this region ahead of the front,
but weak lapse rates aloft -- in part due to widespread clouds and
precipitation anticipated across the warm sector -- should limit
destabilization potential.  This lack of CAPE is expected to
substantially temper storm intensity/organization, despite a strong
flow field favorably increasing and veering with height across the
region.

With that said, transient/occasionally more-organized convective
structures seem likely -- through much of the period, but
particularly from afternoon onward.  Presuming that a few stronger
bowing and/or weakly rotating segments will sporadically manifest,
accompanying/local risk for gusty/damaging winds and/or a tornado or
two would likely evolve as well -- primarily from the central Gulf
Coast region into parts of western Georgia and the Florida
Panhandle.

...Goss/Moore.. 12/10/2024

$$

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