Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Dec 10 2024 04:26:15 AWUS01 KWNH 100426 FFGMPD FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-101000- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1170 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1125 PM EST Mon Dec 09 2024 Areas affected...southern AL, southwestern GA, northern FL Panhandle Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 100423Z - 101000Z SUMMARY... Localized flash flooding will be possible over southern AL, southwestern GA into northern portions of the FL Panhandle. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr with localized totals of 2-4 inches may occur. DISCUSSION...An axis of training showers and embedded thunderstorms has resulted in a narrow axis of 2-4 inches of rain over southwestern AL since roughly 12Z. Radar imagery from 04Z showed that a WSW to ENE axis of moderate to heavy rain continued to affect southern AL but with slow eastward progression. The heavy rain was occurring near a low level convergence axis, which was located just above the surface and extended from the northwestern tip of the western FL Panhandle across the southern AL/GA border. Precipitable water values of 1.5 to 1.8 inches and generally weak instability near 500 J/kg were supporting localized rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr at times. Water vapor imagery showed weakly diffluent flow over the region and ascent may be aided by lift occurring within the right-entrance region of a RAP forecast/developing 130 kt jet max over northern AL/eastern TN. Southerly to southwesterly low level flow is forecast to maintain over the region through the night along with 500-1000 J/kg ML/MUCAPE just south of the convergence axis, which should continue to slowly translate east over the next few hours ahead of an upstream upper trough over the western U.S. and resultant mid-level height falls. While overall weakening is expected as the low level convergence axis loses definition, pockets of short term training may be enough to support additional 1-2 in/hr rates at times from southern Al into southwestern GA and the northern FL Panhandle through ~10Z. Also, additional shower redevelopment will be possible toward 10Z back to the west, ahead of a cold front to be approaching from the Lower Mississippi Valley. Due today's rainfall, flash flood guidance is 2-3 inches in 3 hours across northern portions of the MPD threat area. The potential for an additional 2-4 inches may cause localized flash flooding over urban or otherwise sensitive locations of the region. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9YLOaOjknNUwA86BtvGPdc8o5iaR99r4j6RkzaBQchx1OroHDV00el0DeOobp5ncHnkL= _9gprbuo8pSa4tKtur2mr54$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...MOB...TAE... ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 32778527 32478442 31658451 31158486 30838560=20 30738682 30738789 31198846 31808806 32498670=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .