Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Dec 10 2024 00:56:01

ACUS01 KWNS 100055
SWODY1
SPC AC 100054

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024

Valid 100100Z - 101200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected overnight across
the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys and central Gulf Coast
states.

....Discussion...
As an upper trough continues digging southeastward across the Plains
and southern Rockies, a weak surface frontal wave, now over the
Arklatex region, is forecast to shift into the Tennessee Valley.  As
this occurs, a trailing cold front will progress southeastward
across the south-central states.

Ahead of the front, a moist low-level airmass has advected northward
into the central Gulf Coast states/Lower Mississippi Valley area.
However, weak lapse rates aloft continue to hinder convective
intensity, with lightning activity now having nearly ceased.  Still,
as the front advances, additional convective development is expected
to occur, along with potential for additional/occasional
thunderstorms.  While deep-layer shear is sufficient for organized
convection, it appears that weak CAPE should preclude appreciable
risk for severe weather overnight.  Therefore, will remove the MRGL
risk that was in effect for a few diurnally enhanced storms over
southern Louisiana.

...Goss.. 12/10/2024

$$

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