Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Dec 09 2024 17:06:42

AWUS01 KWNH 091706
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-092304-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1168
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1206 PM EST Mon Dec 09 2024

Areas affected...Southeast LA and Far Southern MS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 091704Z - 092304Z

SUMMARY... A narrow band of showers and storms training across
southeast LA into MS containing hourly rainfall rates up to 2" at
times could produce areas of flash flooding through this
afternoon. Any flash flood risk is expected to be localized and
confined to urbanized locations.

DISCUSSION... Upper shortwave crossing over the western Gulf
Coast, as evident by GOES-16 mid-level WV, ahead a of deeper
positively-tilted longwave trough extending from the Upper Midwest
to the central Great Basin are aiding in enhance lift along the
central Gulf Coast. Strong west-southwest flow at the mid and
upper levels along the central and western Gulf Coast are
maintaining a moist environment with analyzed PWs of 1.7-1.9"
centered across south-central and southeast LA. These PW values
also near the 90th climatological percentile per the 00z ECENS.
Uniform west-southwest flow through the column will also support
the training potential into this afternoon until the better
forcing shifts eastward by this evening.

Instability will be a limiting factor as MUCAPE remains around
500-1000 J/kg, which for this part of the country struggles to
produce rainfall rates above FFG. 3-hour FFG of 3-5" exists across
much of the region, but are lower near Baton Rouge and Lafayette
due to prior rainfall. 12z HREF and 15z HRRR guidance seem to have
an ok handle on current trends and highlight a low chance for
exceeding 3" per 6 hours by this evening within the MPD area. If
training occurs over low-lying or urban regions for an extended
period, localized flash flooding is possible.

Snell

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9Ua6quaahsrqkzhmkj3WqcRhB5bVObQ6f4qoNdWMD4P1mWRNdlQNBAVGh26W39UYyqpt=
AzvV1okY2UYluhPW0fgXzpg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   30938954 30748893 30318894 29998953 29569081=20
            29349194 29679223 30229177 30769057=20

=3D =3D =3D
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